Still in the game by 2030 despite climate constraints

A major national climate modelling project will present results first hand to livestock producers and grain growers at a public forum at Wagga Wagga next week, on Tuesday May 22. 

Southern Livestock Adaptation 2030 suggests that future livestock enterprises in NSW would still be productive and profitable, allowing change initiated over time in response to constraints forced by climate. 

NSW Department of Primary Industries specialists will present key findings from 9:30am – 2:30pm at the National Wine & Grape Industry Centre at the Charles Sturt University campus and organisers are keen to hear quickly from people who want to attend. 

“Our modelling predicts profit margins would fall in most locations, using 1970-2000 as a baseline but in some higher altitude locations they could improve,” said NSW Department of Primary Industries (NSW DPI) grazing systems technical specialist, Phil Graham. 

Mr Graham says the forum will not be about telling producers what to do, but simply making them aware of practical solutions they can apply to continue farming profitably and productively, despite variable climate. 

“There’s no one-size-fits-all approach - best results will come from combinations of changes which farmers can implement over time as required. 

“It is unrealistic to expect producers to be making big changes now when they are not warranted,” he said. 

At most locations, practical adaptations would be possible to help recover most of the drop in profits. Further west the impact by 2030 on profits at drier locations was likely to be much greater. 

Four global circulation models generated daily weather data for 2030 at 24 locations in NSW, in a total of 36 Australia-wide.

The Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) funded the national project. 

Mr Graham and NSW DPI colleagues, Michael Cashen, Phil Bowden and Warwick Badgery will discuss the impact of climate, soil type and land use on carbon stores at the Wagga forum. 

Anyone who would like to attend can register before Friday May 18 at rsvp@seftonpr.com.au or contact (02) 6766 5222. 

You can also read snapshots from a number of locations analysed by the four global models in Southern Livestock Adaptation 2030 in this month’s edition of Agriculture Today at www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agtoday

Photos are available from ron.aggs@dpi.nsw.gov.au

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